Measure Twice, Cut Once: The New Astrology of Net Zero

One of the first lessons taught to any apprentice is simple.

Measure twice. Cut once.

It is not merely a saying; it is a philosophy. It is an acknowledgement that reality does not care about your assumptions. Steel does not care about your feelings. A bridge does not care about your ideology. A machine does not care about political slogans.

Get the measurements wrong and the consequences arrive quickly. The larger the project, the more important the measurement.

Which raises an obvious question. If we are to spend trillions of dollars transforming modern economies, dismantling reliable power generation, covering productive farmland with transmission lines, subsidising favoured technologies, and fundamentally changing the way people live and work, shouldn’t we be absolutely certain we understand the problem?

Or are we making the biggest cut in human history before we’ve finished measuring?

For decades Australians have been told that “the science is settled.” Settled: what an extraordinary word. Science is never settled.

Science advances because people question assumptions. Every major scientific breakthrough in history began with someone challenging what everybody supposedly knew to be true.

Yet climate politics has evolved into something very different from science. It has become a belief system. A modern secular religion. And like all religions, it has its priests, its sacred texts, its rituals, its sinners and its heretics.

The priests are the politicians, bureaucrats and professional activists who assure us they possess special knowledge unavailable to the common citizen. The sacred texts are the reports that few people read but everybody is expected to obey. The rituals involve carbon credits, emissions targets and declarations of Net Zero virtue.

The sinners are motorists, miners, manufacturers, farmers and anyone else unfortunate enough to produce something tangible. The heretics are those who ask inconvenient questions.

Like the effectiveness of Net Zero and whether you are a denier.

Like the economic cost and whether you are irresponsible.

Like whether Australia’s sacrifices will make any measurable difference and are you opposing science itself.

This is not science; this is theology. The irony is that genuine science looks remarkably different.

Astronomy is science. Astronomy studies the heavens through observation, measurement and evidence. It seeks to understand the immense forces that shape our world. It studies the Sun, the Moon, solar cycles, planetary motion, ocean systems and the countless interactions that influence life on Earth.

Astronomers understand complexity. Astrologers prefer certainty. And increasingly, climate politics resembles astrology far more than astronomy.

The Sun delivers extraordinary amounts of energy to Earth every second. Ocean currents circulate heat around the globe. Volcanic activity affects atmospheric conditions. Long-term natural cycles continue to be studied and debated by scientists around the world.

Yet much of our political class speaks as though one of the most complex systems in the known universe can be reduced to a single variable and controlled by government decree.

That is not humility; it is arrogance. The arrogance that has infected both major political parties.

Labor and the Coalition pretend to be fierce opponents. They shout at each other across the chamber. They accuse each other of incompetence. They fight over details. Yet on climate policy they increasingly resemble two branches of the same establishment.

Labor promises Net Zero. The Coalition promises Net Zero.

Labor subsidises selected technologies. The Coalition subsidises selected technologies. Labor expands government intervention. The Coalition argues about the speed of government intervention.

The destination remains identical; the argument is merely about which road to take.

Millions of Australians who are sceptical of this agenda look at Canberra and see no meaningful choice at all. The debate has become a contest between the fast lane and the slow lane on the same highway.

Meanwhile the consequences continue to accumulate. Electricity prices rise despite endless promises of cheaper power. Manufacturers struggle to compete against countries that prioritise affordability and reliability.

Investment leaves. Industries contract. Workers pay more. Families pay more. Small businesses pay more.

The political class responds by announcing new subsidies funded by the very taxpayers already paying the inflated costs.

It is a policy failure so spectacular that it requires additional policy failures to conceal the original one.

Even more remarkable is the moral vanity that accompanies it. Australia accounts for a tiny share of global emissions, yet governments behave as though the future of the planet depends upon whether a plumber in Frankston drives a diesel ute or an accountant in Melbourne buys an electric vehicle.

China continues to build coal-fired power stations. India continues to prioritise economic growth.

Developing nations continue to pursue affordable energy because they understand a truth that Western politicians have forgotten: prosperity is not the enemy of humanity. Prosperity is what allows humanity to solve problems.

The wealthy societies of today have cleaner air, cleaner water and better environmental outcomes than the poor societies of yesterday. Economic growth is not the problem. It is often the solution.

This is where the libertarian view diverges sharply from both sides of politics. The answer is not climate denial. The answer is recognising the limits of government knowledge and government power.

Politicians cannot accurately predict next year’s budget position. Bureaucracies struggle to deliver infrastructure projects on time and on budget. Yet we are expected to believe these same institutions can successfully redesign energy systems, influence global temperatures and manage planetary climate outcomes decades into the future.

That requires a level of faith usually associated with medieval pilgrimages.

A freer society would trust innovation more than regulation; competition more than mandates; markets more than ministers; adaptation more than panic; human ingenuity more than bureaucratic planning.

Most importantly, it would remember the lesson that built every factory, bridge, workshop and successful enterprise in Australia.

Measure twice.

Cut once.

The climate will continue to change, as it always has.

The Sun will continue to rise. The Moon will continue to pull the tides.

Nature will continue to ignore political narratives.

The question is whether Australians will continue to hand power to politicians who claim certainty about things they cannot possibly know with certainty. Because the bigger the cut, the more important the measurement. And there has never been a bigger cut than Net Zero.

The time has come to stop treating climate policy as a religion and start treating it as every sensible tradesman would treat any major project.

With scepticism. With humility. With evidence.

And above all else, with a tape measure in hand.